Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 15 2023 - 12Z Sat Jun 17 2023

...Numerous severe thunderstorms expected today across parts of the
central and southern Plains...

...Additional chances for flash flooding and severe weather throughout the
central/eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast, as well as into the central High
Plains through Friday...

...Mid-June heat wave underway across much of Texas and the Deep South...

...Poor air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke forecast over the
northern Plains and Midwest today...

A very active weather pattern impacting much of the Nation with numerous
types of hazardous weather is anticipated to continue through the start of
this weekend. Headlining the busy June weather pattern is the threat of
significant severe thunderstorms throughout parts of the central and
southern Plains today, with severe weather and heavy rain chances also
extending into the eastern Gulf Coast. A shortwave trough ejecting into
the southern High Plains this afternoon combined with a sharp dry line and
lifting warm front over the southern Plains will aid in providing an
environment conducive for several developing severe thunderstorms across
southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the far northeastern Texas
Panhandle. These thunderstorms are then forecast to race southeastward by
late this afternoon into central Oklahoma. The severe hazards associated
with these expected storms include hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter, wind gusts above 80 mph, and a few tornadoes. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe
thunderstorms to further highlight this threat.

Farther east and to the south of a lingering frontal boundary, ongoing
thunderstorm activity and redevelopment later today will create additional
chances for flash flooding and severe weather from the central/eastern
Gulf Coast to parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida. With ample
atmospheric moisture content in place from the nearby Gulf of Mexico,
thunderstorms will be capable of containing intense rainfall rates while
exhibiting slow forward motion at times. These factors combined with
recent rainfall saturating soils across parts of the region could lead to
an increasing flash flood risk from central Mississippi to the
Georgia-Florida border. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall
remains in effect for the region. A few storms throughout the central and
eastern Gulf Coast may also be capable of containing damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and a few tornadoes today. The active weather will not
conclude tonight as another round of intense thunderstorms are possible on
Friday, while extending farther northwest into the Lower Mississippi
Valley as well. Damaging wind gusts and large hail could accompany the
developing thunderstorms, as well as a renewed threat for scattered flash
flooding. Elsewhere, slow-moving and localized severe storms along an
approaching cold front may impact parts the Rockies and central High
Plains through the end of the week. Saturated soils across Wyoming,
Colorado, and western Kansas may increase the flash flooding threat
somewhat. Thus, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) has been issued for today across
parts of Wyoming and on Friday across the central High Plains.

It wouldn't be an active summer weather pattern without oppressive heat
and much of Texas and the Deep South will have plenty heading into the
beginning of the holiday weekend. A building upper-level ridge over South
Texas will allow for dangerously hot temperatures and high humidity across
much of the Lone Star State (outside of the Texas Panhandle). Sultry heat
indices up to 110 degrees will also extend east into southern Louisiana.
High temperatures into the triple digits and upper-90s could exceed daily
high temperatures records for the next few days throughout the region. The
highest heat indices are forecast across South Texas, where it could feel
as hot as 120 degrees. This ongoing summer heat wave isn't expected to let
up and likely to continue well into next week. Additionally, South Florida
will also endure some mid-June heat through at least Friday as highs reach
into the mid-90s, with heat indices as high as 110 degrees. Residents and
visitors within regions impacted by excessive heat are urged to follow
proper heat safety; such as staying hydrated, limiting time outdoors, and
checking in on any vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.

For the northern half of the Lower 48, upper-level troughs over the
Northeast, Great Lakes, and Northwest will offer scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances through Saturday. A few severe thunderstorms are
possible along and near a developing surface low pressure system and cold
front across the Ohio Valley today, before the isolated damaging wind gust
and hail threat shifts to the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. However, the likely
more widespread impact associated with the weather pattern over the
Northeast and Great Lakes will be associated with the influx of
near-surface wildfire smoke throughout the northern Plains and Midwest
thanks to northerly flow out of Canada. Air Quality Alerts have been
issued throughout Minnesota and Wisconsin, with smoke also forecast to
enter parts of Iowa and northern Illinois today. For areas impacted by
reduced air quality due to wildfire smoke, residents and visitors should
limit prolonged or heavy exertion outdoors.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php