Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 16 2023 - 00Z Sun Jun 18 2023

...Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible from the
Southern Plains, across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into North
Florida...

...Heavy rain and potential flash flooding also possible across the
Northern to Central Plains into the Central Rockies...

...Record high temperatures possible across portions of central to
southern Texas and across portions of eastern Louisiana...

...Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impact the Upper Mississippi
Valley, Great Lakes and Mid-West...

The very active late spring weather pattern of recent weeks across large
portions of the CONUS shows no signs of letting up as the work week ends
and the weekend begins.  A stationary frontal boundary currently lying
from the Southern Plains, across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
Southeast will continue to focus for heavy rains, severe thunderstorms and
potential flash flooding.  This front has already been the focus for
widespread severe weather over the past 24 hours from eastern portions of
the Southern Plains, across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the
Southeast, with a current area of heavy rains affecting the Southeast into
North Florida Thursday afternoon.  This lead area of thunderstorms and
heavy rains is forecast to diminish by this evening.  This will be
followed by additional thunderstorms forming over Oklahoma and North Texas
from late this afternoon into this evening, pressing southeast across the
Lower Mississippi Valley tonight and into North Florida during Friday.  A
severe weather threat is likely with these storms, especially across the
Southern Plains late this afternoon into this evening.  The Storm
Prediction Center is indicating a moderate risk of severe weather across
much of Oklahoma into Norther Texas.  Tornadoes, large hail and high winds
are all possible with large hail and high winds having the greatest
probability of occurring.

While active weather focuses along the stationary front across the
southern tier of the nation, a separate cold front moving slowly eastward
across portions of the Northern to Central Plains into the Central Rockies
region will be the focus for widespread areas of potentially heavy rains
and isolated flash flooding from Thursday afternoon through the day on
Friday.  The greatest chances of flash flooding will be from large
sections of Wyoming, northeastward into portions of South and North Dakota
and southward into areas from eastern Colorado into western Kansas, where
recent heavy rains have lead to higher than average stream flows and soil
moisture. This front and the accompanying rains will push farther to the
east on Saturday, bringing heavy rain potential from eastern portions of
the Central and Northern Plains.  These areas have not seen as much
precipitation of late as areas farther to the west.  This should lessen
the chances of flash flooding, although locally heavy rains are still
possible.  Additional isolated heavy rains are again possible farther to
the west across portions of Colorado on Saturday.  Although the coverage
is not expected to be as widespread as Thursday and Friday, there will
still be the chance of isolated flash flooding given the recent wet
conditions.

While large portions of the mid section of the nation will be wet over the
next few days, the opposite will be true across the Southern Plains into
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley where a heat wave shows not signs
of letting up going into this weekend and early next week.  Record high
temperatures in the lower 100s are likely across Central to South Texas
Friday and Saturday, affecting the cities of Austin, San Antonio, Houston,
Corpus Christi and Brownsville.  Record high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s also possible across portions of eastern Louisiana, affecting
Baton Rouge and New Orleans.  Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings
are currently in effect across these regions and will likely continue to
be so going through the holiday weekend into early next week as the heat
wave is forecast to persist.

An upper level low amplifying from the Lower Lakes into the Northeast over
the next 24 to 48 hours will continue to push smoke from the western
Canadian wildfires south across the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes,
Mid-West, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and toward southern New England over
the 24 hours.   This amplifying upper trof will also be responsible for
increasing rain chances from tonight into Friday from the eastern Great
Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and then across eastern New York State into
New England on Saturday.  For the eastern Lakes region into the
Mid-Atlantic these rains will be much welcomed as a very dry spring has
lead to an intensifying drought.


Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php