Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 16 2023 - 12Z Sun Jun 18 2023

...Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding and Severe Thunderstorms possible across
portions of the Central Plains, Gulf/East Coast...

...Record high temperatures possible across portions of central to
southern Texas and across portions of eastern Louisiana; Critical Fire
Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest...

...Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and interior Northeast...

A very active period over the CONUS will continue into the Juneteenth
holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms are likely over
portions of the Central Plains today. There are Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms over parts of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas where damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible.
Rain rates of 1-2"/hr could cause flash flooding. Slight Risks are also in
effect for parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast
today where wind damage, hail potential and flash flooding are all
possible over those areas. A complex of storms moving through the Ohio
Valley on Thursday night will progress into the DelMarVa and southern New
Jersey region this afternoon. Wind and hail damage are likely to be the
main hazards from this complex of storms.

The flash flooding threat subsides on Saturday while severe weather
continues across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Two distinct surface fronts,
one draped along the Deep South, the other moving through the
Central/Southern Plains, will be the focus for severe weather on Saturday.
There's a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of southeastern
Colorado, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle today, where
large hail, damaging gusts and an isolated tornado are possible. Strong
cells are expected to initiate over the central Gulf Coast on Saturday
afternoon and cause wind damage/hail over portions of coastal Mississippi,
Alabama and the Florida panhandle before moving offshore into the Gulf.

A very stable and stationary upper-level ridge is likely to remain over
southern Texas and Mexico for the foreseeable future. This ridge will
continue generating record warmth over southern Texas through the weekend,
at the very least. High temperatures in the 100s to 110s will represent a
15-25 degree anomaly for this time of year over that area. High pressure
will build over the Front Range on the backside of the Great Plains
system. This will lead to anomalously cool high temperatures for parts of
the Northern/Central Plains/Rockies today and on Saturday. Very dry and
windy conditions will support critical fire weather threats over parts of
southeastern Arizona and New Mexico this weekend. Another upper-level low
pressure system moving through the Northeast and Canadian maritime will
circulate Canadian wildfire smoke over the Midwest, Great Lakes and
interior Northeast this weekend.


Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php