Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 17 2023 - 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023

...Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding and Severe Thunderstorms possible across
portions of the Central Plains, Gulf/East Coast...

...Record high temperatures possible across portions of central to
southern Texas and across portions of eastern Louisiana; Critical Fire
Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest...

...Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest and interior Northeast...

An active weekend of weather is in store for much of the central Plains
and Southeast, as heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms are likely
through Sunday. Today, several regions have been highlighted by a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall, as well as a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center, including portions of
eastern Colorado and western Kansas where damaging winds and isolated
large hail are possible. Heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr embedded in
developing thunderstorms will also be possible, which could lead to
isolated instances of flash flooding. Further east, similar risks are
present in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast,
where showers and thunderstorms initiating along a stationary boundary
draped across the Mid-South will lead to another afternoon of possible
damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may develop this evening across the Mid-Atlantic as a
surface low tracks through the region; however, the greatest threat,
associated with a convective complex that produced severe wind gusts in
New Jersey, has pushed offshore.

The flash flooding threat is expected to diminish on Saturday while severe
weather continues across the Plains and Gulf Coast as two distinct surface
fronts, one draped along the Deep South and the other moving through the
Central and Southern Plains, will be the focus for developing
thunderstorms. As a result, an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms has
been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of Oklahoma and parts
of western Arkansas. The primary threats are damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and isolated tornadoes. Potent cells are also forecast to initiate
over the central Gulf Coast on Saturday afternoon and cause damaging wind
gusts and hail over portions of coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the
Florida panhandle before moving offshore into the Gulf. The flash flood
and severe thunderstorm threat will continue into Sunday across the
Mid-South as warm, moist Gulf air continues to surge northward behind a
warm front, leading to further initiation of potent cells.

Elsewhere, a persistent and stationary upper-level ridge will remain over
southern Texas and Mexico for the foreseeable future, generating record
warmth over southern Texas through the weekend. High temperatures
approaching 100F - 110F in addition to dew points reaching and exceeding
70F will produce dangerous heat indices of 110F - 120F, resulting in
widespread Heat Warnings and Advisories for the region. Repeated and
lengthy exposure to heat of this magnitude can lead to adverse health
risks, so residents should decrease exposure by limiting outdoor
activities and drinking plenty of fluids. Further west, high pressure will
build over the Front Range on the backside of the Great Plains system,
leading to anomalously cool high temperatures for parts of the
Northern/Central Plains/Rockies through Saturday. Furthermore, dry and
windy conditions will support critical fire weather threats over parts of
southeastern Arizona and New Mexico this weekend. Another upper-level
low-pressure system moving through the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes
will circulate Canadian wildfire smoke over the Midwest, Great Lakes, and
interior Northeast this weekend, although it will be much less potent than
last week.


Russell/Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php