Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jun 17 2023 - 12Z Mon Jun 19 2023

...Very rainy and stormy across the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast...

...Record setting heat possible from southern Texas to eastern Louisiana;
Critical Fire Weather likely over portions of the Southern Plains and
Southwest...

...Smoke from Canadian wildfires to continue impacting the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...

Low pressure systems over the Central/Southern Plains will move into the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast this weekend. The attendant
quasi-stationary fronts will be the focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms as well as potential excessive rainfall and severe weather.
An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect over parts of
southern Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle this afternoon, where
damaging wind gusts of over 70 knots and hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter are possible. This severe weather threat could reach the
ArkLaTex after midnight as well as parts of the central Gulf Coast and
Florida where a broad Slight Risk is in effect. There are flash flooding
concerns over portions of Florida's central Gulf coast, including Tampa
Bay and points north, today as substantial Gulf moisture is expected to
focus around a stationary front draped across the region. Between 2-4
inches of rain are possible for this area, which is why a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect.

The severe weather and excessive rainfall threats shift into the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday as surface low pressure shifts
into the region. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity are expected
to continue around the aforementioned areas while the heaviest rainfall
and severe thunderstorms are likely to form around the surface front
draped across the region. Another Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is
in effect for much of Arkansas, Mississippi, northern Louisiana and
southwestern Alabama on Sunday with damaging gusts being the primary
sensible threat from these storms. Isolated large to very large hail are
also possible. 1-3 inches of rainfall over portions of southeastern
Missouri, eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama
supports a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for
those areas on Sunday.

Anomalously warm temperatures are expected to continue across southern
Texas and parts of the central Gulf Coast for the next several days as an
upper-level ridge remains centered over northern Mexico. High temperatures
in the 100s and lows in the upper 70s to low 80s from southern Texas to
the Louisiana coast will likely tie or break records, at least through
early next week. Warm, dry and windy conditions will support Critical Fire
risk today before conditions become less favorable for fires on Sunday.
Some Canadian wildfire smoke will continue to circulate across parts of
the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast over the
next couple of days.

Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php