Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023 - 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Western
Ohio, Tennessee, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Southeast on Sunday
evening that will migrate eastward to Southern Appalachians and southern
Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast on Sunday;
Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast/Central
Gulf Coast on Monday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast...

Upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi and Western Ohio Valleys
and a weak front in much of the south-central and southeastern parts of
the country, plus high moisture values, will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley, Central Gulf Coast, and Southeast. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Central Gulf Coast, and
Southeast through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a front over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the far
western Florida Panhandle will create showers and severe thunderstorms
over the area. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, and Central Gulf Coast through Monday morning. Furthermore, there
is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater over the area.

On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall moves eastward to the
southeastern parts of the country. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast, southern
Mid-Atlantic, and Southern Appalachians from Monday into Tuesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

In addition, as the front moves eastward, the showers and severe
thunderstorms move east. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Appalachians and southern
Mid-Atlantic from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

By Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will move into the
southeastern portion of the country. Therefore, on Tuesday, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. Additionally, the threat of severe
thunderstorms reduces to a Marginal Risk over the Central Gulf Coast to
parts of the Southeast.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging, high temperatures, and temperatures not
cooling off much overnight have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories over the Central and Western Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, a deep upper-level low will move over the Northwest, creating
scattered rain showers over parts of the Northwest into the Northern
Rockies from Sunday evening into Tuesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php