Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 19 2023 - 12Z Wed Jun 21 2023

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible across Gulf Coast,
Southeast and Carolinas...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect from Texas to
Louisiana...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk in Arizona and New Mexico...

A stalled-out upper trough will promote heavy rainfall and thunderstorms,
some severe, across the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS over the next
few days. Therefore, Juneteenth will be stormy and rainy across much of
the Southeast this year. Heavy rainfall will develop over the
central/eastern Gulf Coast today, where 1-3" of rainfall is likely. Higher
amounts are expected over the Central Appalachians as surface troughing,
the presence of a nearby surface wave, thunderstorms and upslope
enhancement will support 24 hour totals in the 2-4" range. Of course, with
all of this rain comes the risk of flash flooding. Thus, a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of coastal Mississippi,
Alabama and the Florida panhandle. There's another Slight Risk area over
western portions of the Carolinas. The Storm Prediction Center also issued
a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for a swath covering the central
Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast of South Carolina, Georgia and Florida
today. Damaging winds will be the main threat from any severe
thunderstorms that develop. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible over parts of the Northwest, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic as well today.

An approaching cold front will focus shower and thunderstorm activity over
parts of the Northern Plains on Tuesday. Fortunately, rain rates will be
low so the flash flood threat will be marginal. Increased instability and
moisture east of the front will create an environment favorable to
short-lived severe thunderstorms over central North/South Dakota. Strong
outflow gusts and large hail will be possible within some of this
convection. The pattern from Juneteenth will more or less persist over the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, but this time the heaviest rainfall
will shift away from the Gulf Coast and into northwestern Florida where
between 1-3" may accumulate. Another day of heavy rainfall over the
western Carolinas is in store for Tuesday as 1-3" is forecast to
accumulate from the Central/Southern Appalachians to the Carolina coast.
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
rest of the Southeast.

Upper-level ridging over Mexico will amplify over Texas, which will lead
to higher temperatures for much of the state but also as far east as
Louisiana. Widespread high and low temperature records are forecast to be
tied or broken over the coming days as the upper ridge remains stationed
over head. High temperatures in the 100s and lows in the upper 70s and 80s
will support the continued Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
that have been in effect for much of central/southern Texas and Louisiana.
Temperatures will remain well below average across the West as an
amplifying upper trough moves into the Great Plains. Very dry, warm and
windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires across Arizona and
New Mexico through Tuesday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php