Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 20 2023 - 00Z Thu Jun 22 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast through Wednesday and over the Northern/Central High Plains on
Wednesday...

...There is a Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast/Central Gulf Coast and Northern Plains from Monday to Tuesday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast...

Upper-level energy over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will slowly drift
around the area as a weak front over much of the south-central and
southeastern parts of the country, plus high moisture values, will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of North/South
Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Therefore, through Tuesday
morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, a second area of excessive rainfall will develop over parts
of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast
through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a front over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia,
and Florida will create showers and severe thunderstorms over the area.
Therefore, through Tuesday morning, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast,
and Central Gulf Coast. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, upper-level energy will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Additionally, a second front over the Northern Plains to the Southwest
moves slowly eastward, then stalls out over the region by Wednesday. The
boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of North
Dakota and Montana. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast, southern Mid-Atlantic, and
Southern Appalachians from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

In addition, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues over parts of
the Northern Plains and the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

A second area over the Gulf Coast will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast from Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

By Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
western South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, and far northwestern Kansas.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable.

Also, on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop
over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic, Southern Appalachians, and
Southeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. Additionally, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces to a
Marginal Risk over the Central/Southern High Plains.

Furthermore, upper-level ridging, high temperatures, and temperatures not
cooling off much overnight have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories over the Central and Western Gulf Coast.

Elsewhere, a deep upper-level low will move over the Northwest, creating
scattered rain showers over parts of the Northwest into the Northern
Rockies from Monday evening into Wednesday afternoon.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php