Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 20 2023 - 12Z Thu Jun 22 2023

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather likely over parts of the Great
Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...

...Record breaking heat wave persists in Texas...

A retrograding upper-level low over the Southeast will generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms from the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas
today. Upslope enhancement of substantial moisture over saturated soils
will support an Enhanced Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding over parts of the western Carolinas where between 1-3 inches of
rain is possible. A stationary front draped across the Southeast will be
the focus for heavy rainfall over parts of the central Gulf Coast,
particularly the Louisiana coast where 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected
and a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Severe thunderstorms
are possible over the central Gulf Coast and Northern Plains today.
Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats.

The upper low will continue spinning over the Southeast on Wednesday.
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will ascend farther north
into the Mid-Atlantic as a result. There's a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over a swath of the interior Southeast
and Mid-Atlantic where 1-2 inches of rain is possible. Another active area
will be the Central/Southern Plains, where Excessive Rainfall and severe
thunderstorms are expected. Large hail, and severe gusts will be the main
hazards within areas of convection. Potential training of storms will
support flash flooding potential, particularly over parts of western South
Dakota and Nebraska where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect.

The record breaking heat in Texas caused by a stationary upper-level ridge
will continue for the next several days. High temperatures will be in the
100s and 110s across southern Texas. There will be little respite in the
evenings as lows only drop into the 70s and 80s. Excessive Heat Warnings
and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of Texas as a result. Troughing
in the West will support below average temperatures across the region
through midweek. Highs in the 50s and 60s will be 10-20 degrees below
average. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will experience cooler than
average temperatures as well during this same time as the upper level low
remains centered overhead and skies remain cloudy.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php