Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023 - 00Z Fri Jun 23 2023

...Severe weather possible for parts of the Great Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast today and Wednesday...

...Excessive Rainfall expected in parts of the Great Plains, Lower
Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday...

...Record breaking heat wave persists in Texas...

Over the next few days, two nearly stationary frontal boundaries will
dominate the weather pattern in the continental United States. One will
drape across the southern Plains, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic.
The second frontal system will extend from Canada across the northern and
central Plains, intermountain West, and Southwest. The upper level and
surface weather pattern will be fairly stagnant through the end of the
work week, and this pattern will support chances of showers and storms
each day across the Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and
southern Mid-Atlantic.

Some storms in the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast
may be strong to severe, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) for parts of these regions
for today and Wednesday. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will
be possible with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.

In addition to severe thunderstorm threats, excessive rainfall is expected
to threaten parts of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday. Over the next three days,
2-3+ inches of rainfall are forecast from Maryland to the Florida
Panhandle and 1-2+ inches of rainfall are forecast for parts of the
northern and central Plains. Locally higher amounts will be possible, and
excessive rainfall may lead to flash flooding. Today there is a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi Valley and a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) in effect for the western Carolinas. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) are also in effect for parts of the Great Plains,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast for Wednesday and Thursday.

Record breaking heat is forecast to continue in Texas for the next several
days as the weather pattern remains the same. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the 100s and 110s in South, Central, and West Texas with
heat index values as high as 120 degrees. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in effect for most of the state. Above average temperatures
will also persist across the Upper Midwest through the end of the week,
while below normal temperatures persist across much of the West,
Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php