Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 21 2023 - 12Z Fri Jun 23 2023

...Severe weather and Excessive Rainfall possible over parts of the Great
Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast...

...Record breaking heat wave persists in Texas...

A mostly stationary weather pattern across the lower 48 will allow for
hazardous weather to remain focused over designated parts of the country
for the next few days. Expect showers and thunderstorms across the Great
Plains on this Summer Solstice day. Scattered to isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Central/Southern Plains,
where a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms was issued by the Storm
Prediction Center. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main sensible
threats generated by any severe storms that develop. Broad diffluence
aloft will also allow for moisture and instability to advect into the
Plains today. Heavy rainfall may develop over along a quasi stationary
front draped across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, where there's
a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding. The
Southeast will continue to be a hot spot for heavy rainfall as an upper
low spins overhead. Gulf moisture will stream northward and will interact
with a stationary front draped across the Southeast. 1-3 inches of rain
over saturated soils could lead to runoff, hence the inclusion of another
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for much of
the Southeast today.

Shortwave energy embedded withing the broad upper ridge will generate
showers and thunderstorms across the Central Plains on Thursday, with some
storms potentially turning severe and producing hail as well as strong
wind gusts. Portions of southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado are
under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms due to the higher potential
for severe storms capable of producing hail and wind damage there. Heavy
rainfall is also likely to develop over the Central Plains on Thursday. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for portions of southeastern Wyoming, western Nebraska/Kansas and the
Oklahoma panhandle where 1-2 inches of rainfall over relatively saturated
soils could cause runoff problems. While the convective threat over the
Southeast will diminish on Thursday, the concerns around excessive
rainfall will not. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to
Flash Flooding is in effect for much of the Southeast, Carolinas and
southern Virginia on Thursday due to the continued flow of moisture,
instability and heavy rainfall over the region. While some of this
rainfall across the DelMarVa will be beneficial, rain over the Carolinas
and the Florida panhandle could cause instances of flash flooding.

An upper ridge centered over northern Mexico will continue to expand
through the central CONUS over the next several days. The response will be
a widespread and persistent record breaking heat wave across Texas. Air
temperatures in the 100s and 110s and dewpoints in the 70s and 80s during
the day followed by low temperatures in the 70s and 80s overnight will
make for oppressive outdoor conditions over much of southern Texas.
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for much of
Texas and southern New Mexico. Repeated and lengthy exposure to heat can
increase the risk of health impacts, including heat exhaustion and heat
stroke.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php