Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 23 2023 - 12Z Sun Jun 25 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Rockies, Northern Plains, and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Saturday, and a second area over the Florida Panhandle on Friday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains on Friday and a Slight Risk of Middle
Mississippi Valley on Saturday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas...

A front over the parts of the Great Basin to the Upper Great Lakes,
upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Therefore,
through Tuesday morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Central
Plains through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, a second area of excessive rainfall will develop over parts
of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia associated with a stalled front.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast/Southeast through Saturday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, the front over parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska will
create showers and severe thunderstorms over the area. Therefore, through
Tuesday morning, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central High Plains. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is
a threat of two-inch or greater hail and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of
65 knots or greater over parts of the region through Saturday morning.

Furthermore, a dryline and high moisture content air will produce showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the threat of excessive rainfall ends over Florida on
Saturday. However, the threat continues over North Dakota and Minnesota as
the front moves eastward. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains and the Upper
Mississippi Valley from Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues over parts of Iowa
and Missouri. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley from
Saturday through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

Meanwhile, an upper-level low over the Ohio Valley moves slowly
northeastward and weakens by Sunday. The energy, weak front, and deep
moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Central Appalachians, and Northeast
through Friday. On Saturday, the energy will continue to produce showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the northeast, Lower Great Lakes, Ohio
Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, upper-level
impulses will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of
California and the Great Basin on Friday and over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. 

Furthermore, an upper-level high over Northern Mexico, western Texas, and
New Mexico, along with high temperatures and temperatures not cooling off
much overnight, have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories over southern/western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php