Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 24 2023 - 00Z Mon Jun 26 2023

...A moderate risk of excessive rainfall is anticipated across portions of
Montana through tonight as locally heavy rain spreads east across the
northern Plains and upper Midwest through the weekend...

...Risk of severe thunderstorms will shift east from the High Plains
tonight to the Midwest on Saturday, followed by the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
on Sunday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for the
far southern Plains through the weekend with an Excessive Heat Watch now
in effect for southern Arizona...

After a brief southward retreat of the excessive heat toward southern
Texas these past couple of days, this unrelenting heat wave is showing
signs of expanding farther northeast during the weekend in response to an
upper-level trough currently getting ready to move off the northern Rockies. 
The low pressure system that is forecast to develop and move across the
northern Plains during the weekend will also be responsible for a moderate
risk of flash flooding over portions of Montana as well as an enhanced
risk of severe thunderstorms over the northern and central High Plains
through tonight.  By Saturday, moderate to locally heavy rain is forecast
to track farther east across the northern Plains mainly north of the low
pressure center.  Farther south, thunderstorms that are expected to be
triggered ahead of a well-developed cold front could become severe as they
reach the Midwest later in the afternoon into the evening.  By Sunday
morning, the highest threat of severe thunderstorms should be moving into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley while moderate rain shifts further east across
the upper Midwest ahead of and to north of the low pressure system.

Elsewhere along the East Coast, plenty of antecedent moisture associated
with a weakening low pressure system will keep a chance of scattered
showers with embedded thunderstorms, as well as areas of light rain and
drizzle through the weekend.  The Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic
will have a chance to dry out but New England will see rain chances
increasing as the weekend progresses.  Some lingering moisture will also 
keep some scattered showers over the interior Pacific Northwest.

Meanwhile, the excessive heat across the South will continue with
potentially more all-time record high heat indices through the weekend as
the northern edge of the heat wave begins to spread farther northeast. 
Please stay safe in this ongoing dangerous heat wave!

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php