Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 26 2023 - 12Z Wed Jun 28 2023

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over the Southwest, southern
Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi...

...Air Quality alerts over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley...

A front extending from parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Southern Plains will move eastward to the East Coast, Southeast westward
to the Southern High Plains by Wednesday. On Monday, the boundary will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Maryland, Delaware,
Virginia, and North Carolina. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Additionally, there is a threat of two-inch or greater hail
over parts of southwestern Virginia and western North/South Carolina
through Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of southeastern New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware,
Virginia, and North Carolina. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

Additionally, upper-level energy moving over the Northern/Central High
Plains will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of
Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central
High Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is a threat of two-inch or
greater hail over the area through Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly over the
East Coast and Northern/Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Southern New England
Coast southward to the Carolina Coast from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of
hail. 

Moreover, the energy over the Northern/Central High Plains will produce
showers and strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Further, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly over the
Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic from
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Also, the threat of excessive rainfall
decreases slightly over the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas
of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

Meanwhile, upper-level impulses and a developing upper-level trough will
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin,
Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Northern Rockies on
Monday, continuing into Wednesday. 

Furthermore, an upper-level high over the south-central portion of the
country, along with high temperatures and temperatures not cooling off
much overnight, have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories over most of Texas, southern New Mexico/Arizona, extreme
southern Oklahoma, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, and southern
Alabama.

Lastly, wildfire smoke from Canada will reduce air quality over parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley prompting Air Quality Warnings over the area.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php