Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 05 2023 - 12Z Fri Jul 07 2023

...Heat reaches its peak intensity over portions of the Pacific Northwest
today as ; critical fire risk continues over northern Arizona...

...More strong to severe storms likely across the central Plains through
the next couple of days with periods of heavy to excessive rainfall
possibly leading to flash flooding...

A rather strong intrusion of cool air from Canada for this time of the
year continues to make its way southward into the central Plains early
this morning.  A squall line triggered near/ahead of a cold front that
marked the boundary of the cool air mass was moving across the central
Plains with heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms.  This boundary is
forecast to gradually become nearly stationary across the south-central
U.S. for the next couple of days as additional organized clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to periodically form and move
east across the central Plains.  Heavy to excessive rainfall can lead to
areas of flash flooding in addition to the increased threat of severe
weather.  Meanwhile, temperatures behind the front are forecast to
challenge some record cool day-time temperatures today across the
north-central High Plains, followed by some record low temperatures into
the mid to upper 40's over the central Plains Thursday morning.  These
temperatures will only recover slightly on Friday.

Meanwhile, the latest heat wave that has extended into the interior
portion of the Pacific Northwest should reach its peak intensity today as
actual high temperatures are forecast to top the lower 100's at the
hottest locations.  The heat will then gradually become less intense each
day.  Farther to the south, dry, hot and windy conditions will support a
Critical Fire Weather risk over much of northern Arizona for the next
couple of days.

Seasonal to above-average temperatures will continue across the southern
Plains and through much of the eastern U.S.  More typical summertime
scattered thunderstorms are expected to linger across the southern tier
states.  Meanwhile, showers and storms associated with a weakening low
pressure wave have largely exited New England.  However, the associated
weak front is forecast to linger near the Eastern Seaboard with showers
and storms mainly confined across the southern Mid-Atlantic to the
Southeast.  Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to move across the
Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Ohio/Tennesse Valley through Thursday,
before reaching into the interior Northeast by Friday morning ahead of a
wavy cold front.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php