Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 06 2023 - 00Z Sat Jul 08 2023

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall/flash flooding chances persist across
the central Plains through at least Friday...

...Heat reaches its peak intensity over portions of the Pacific Northwest
today (Wednesday) while Excessive Heat Warnings and Critical Fire Risk are
in effect for Arizona...

A fairly strong front for this time of year is pressing across the central
U.S. and sparking showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. The
northern part of this front is likely to move slowly east over the next
few days and impact the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions and
eventually the Eastern Seaboard with moderating temperatures and some
scattered convection. In fact, there is a small Slight Risk of severe
weather in place for portions of northern Illinois/southeastern Wisconsin
through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center. But overall more
impactful will be multiple organized clusters of storms in the central
U.S. over the next few days, as the front becomes nearly stationary from
generally west-east and serves as a focus for moisture to pool. Severe
weather is likely across parts of the High Plains today through Friday
with the risk perhaps peaking on Thursday in the central High Plains,
where there is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms as tornadoes, high winds,
and large hail are all potential risks. Additionally, heavy to excessive
rainfall could produce flash flooding since high rain rates are likely.
Slight Risks of excessive rainfall are in place through all of the next
three days in central/southern portions of the Plains given this
potential. Meanwhile, the Southeast could see scattered convection as well.

The aforementioned front is causing a notable divide in above and below
normal temperatures across the country. Cool temperatures across the
northern/central High Plains today should persist through Friday at least,
while gradually moderating and spreading east, with a few record cool
highs/lows possible. Meanwhile, temperatures should be near to above
average south of the front from the Desert Southwest across the South and
into the East. Southwestern states can expect temperatures well into the
100s and even 110s, with Excessive Heat Warnings in effect through Friday
in southern Arizona. Dry and windy conditions combined with the heat will
lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather risks over the next couple of
days centered in northern Arizona. Also, Florida's highs today reaching
the mid-upper 90s could set records, and Heat Advisories are in place. The
cold front will cool temperatures to below average in the east-central
U.S. by Thursday and Friday as it pushes through. Additionally, hot
weather is in place for the Pacific Northwest with temperatures in the 90s
to even exceeding 100F potentially setting records this afternoon. Western
parts of the Northwest should cool tomorrow while the interior regions
warm above average into the 90s, but not to record levels.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php