Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023 - 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023

...Additional rounds of severe weather with heavy rainfall and flash
flooding chances persist across the central Plains through late week,
reaching into the Mississippi Valley by Saturday...

...Hot weather continues over the interior Northwest and parts of the East
while Excessive Heat Warnings and Critical Fire Risk remain in effect for
Arizona...


A frontal system or two stretched across the Plains will help cause
repeating rounds of convection as it focuses moisture and instability.
Severe weather and heavy rainfall potentially causing flash flooding are
likely through the end of the week with multiple convective storms and
complexes. More specifically, through the rest of the day and tonight,
Slight to Enhanced Risks of severe weather are in place across much of the
High Plains as tornadoes, high winds, and large hail are all threats.
Flash flooding is possible as well in the central Plains and downstream
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Not much will change meteorologically
for Friday, with Slight Risks of both severe weather and flash flooding in
place again for the south-central Plains. For Friday night into Saturday,
these risks could stretch farther east into the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valley as the surface fronts and waves of low pressure start
to consolidate.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the East.
Ample moisture ahead of a cold front tracking slowly eastward could lead
to storms in the interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic that may cause flash
flooding particularly tomorrow afternoon, as indicated by a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall. Summertime scattered thunderstorms should linger
across the southern tier states as well.

Cool temperatures across the northern/central Plains will persist into the
weekend at least, while gradually moderating and spreading east.
Meanwhile, temperatures should be near to above average south of the front
from the Desert Southwest across the South and into the East. Southwestern
states can expect temperatures well into the 100s and even 110s, with
Excessive Heat Warnings in effect through Friday in southern Arizona. Dry
and windy conditions combined with the heat will lead to Critical Fire
Weather risks over the next couple of days across northern Arizona.
Additionally, high temperatures in the mid-90s across southern Florida
could challenge daily records during the next couple of days. Heat
Advisories remain in place there and also in parts of the Northeast given
warm temperatures through this evening. On the opposite side of the
country, hot weather is forecast to continue over parts of the Northwest
where high temperatures nearing 100F are forecast for the next few days at
the hottest locations across the interior sections. After a warm
afternoon/evening today in the Pacific Northwest, temperatures across
those regions closer to the coast should gradually moderate late week.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php