Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 07 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 09 2023

...Showers and thunderstorms continue for the East Coast with locally
heavy rainfall possible for the Northeast and Florida...

...Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central and Southern Plains Friday and into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
Saturday...

...Hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest and interior
Pacific Northwest...

Conditions will remain hot and humid along the East Coast heading into the
weekend as ample moisture remains in place across the region. A frontal
system slowly pushing in from the west as well as a typical buoyant
summertime airmass will lead to the risk of afternoon thunderstorms. Some
locally heavy bouts of rain are possible for portions of the interior of
New England and the Northeast south into the Mid-Atlantic, with a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place for Friday. Some locally
heavy rainfall is also possible for the east coast of Florida. Forecast
highs range from the low to mid-80s in New England and portions of the
interior Northeast, the upper 80s to low 90s for the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas, and the low to mid-90s for the Southeast. Highs will be in the
low to mid-90s as well for Florida, with a few locations near
record-tying/breaking highs on Friday.

A pair of meandering frontal systems under energetic flow aloft over
portions of the Central/Southern Plains will help to trigger additional
rounds of organized convection into the weekend. With high surface
moisture pooling along the boundaries, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect from southeastern Colorado southeast through southern
Kansas/northern Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri and northwestern
Arkansas on Friday, with another Slight Risk extending eastward into the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Convective systems developing in
the late afternoon/early evening and continuing overnight will have the
potential to produce additional rounds of heavy rainfall over already
saturated soils from recent episodes, with a risk for flash flooding. In
addition, flow aloft will be strong enough to lead to sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, with the Storm Prediction
Center issuing Slight Risks for severe weather (level 2/5) generally
co-located with the flash flood risk. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main threats, with the potential the damaging wind threat may last
longer and become more widespread into the late-night hours depending on
the level of organization and path of convective systems. Additional rain
chances are also expected further north into the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest ahead of another frontal system pushing south from Canada.
Temperatures will be seasonably hot south of the fronts over the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, with upper 80s to mid-90s forecast.
In contrast, highs will be well below average by as much as 10-15 degrees
for portions of the Central/Northern Plains and Midwest. Temperatures will
generally be in the 70s, with a few cooler spots in the upper 60s and a
few warmer locations into the low 80s.

Temperatures will generally be Summer-time hot and above average for the
interior Northwest and Southwest as areas of upper-level ridging aloft
remain in place heading into the weekend. Heat-related warnings and
advisories are in effect for portions of southern Arizona/New Mexico and
southwest Texas as highs rise into the 100s, with low 110s for portions of
Arizona. In addition, Red Flag Warnings as well as a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center are in place for the Four Corners
region as steady winds and very dry antecedent conditions combine with the
hot temperatures to enhance the threat for wildfires. While advisories are
not currently in place, highs generally in the mid-90s for interior
portions of the Northwest will be running 10-15 degrees above average.
Conditions will be closer to average for the urban I-5 corridor, with 80s
forecast. A pair of upper-level lows/waves just off the West Coast will
keep things a bit cooler along the coast from the Pacific Northwest south
through California with 60s forecast, and mid-80s to low 90s for the
interior valleys. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php