Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023 - 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023

...Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding likely across parts of the
Northeast on Sunday, with the threat lingering across New England on
Monday...

...Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through this
weekend...

...Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest, West
Texas, interior Pacific Northwest, and Florida Peninsula...

A mid-summer weather pattern featuring dangerous heat and the threat of
severe thunderstorms and/or flash flooding is expected to impact parts of
the United States headed into early next week. At the upper levels, a
trough is forecast to swing through the East Coast while a building ridge
anchors over the Southwest. Anomalous atmospheric moisture content located
across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast when combined with forcing from an
approaching frontal system will allow for numerous thunderstorms to
produce areas of heavy rain between the Mid-Atlantic and New England on
Sunday. This heavy rainfall threat when combined with wet antecedent
conditions is likely to produce several areas of flash flooding, some of
which could be significant. The heaviest rain is likely to occur across
the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, with the threat shifting to the
Interior Northeast and New England between Sunday night and Monday.
Residents and visitors in this region between DC/Maryland and Vermont are
urged to monitor local warnings and never drive through flooded roadways.
Along with the heavy rainfall potential, severe thunderstorms capable of
containing damaging wind gusts are possible throughout portions of the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

Along an attached frontal boundary extending from the Northeast through
the Mid-South and into the Southern Plains, clusters of strong to severe
thunderstorms are forecast to push from the central High Plains tonight
towards the southeast. The threat of damaging wind gusts are forecast to
spread as far east as the Mid-South, with large hail possible over eastern
Colorado and the OK/TX Panhandles. Additionally, heavy rain could lead to
scattered areas of flash flooding. The flash flood and severe thunderstorm
threat is also expected to linger into Sunday between the central Gulf
Coast and Southern Plains, before a resurgence in thunderstorm activity
throughout the Central/Southern Plains on Monday.

Much of the Southern Tier between the Florida Peninsula and the Desert
Southwest have truly entered the dog days of summer, with oppressive heat
forecast to remain in place into the foreseeable future. Highs into the
mid-90s are forecast across the southern Florida Peninsula, with high
humidity leading to heat indices near 110 degrees. Similar conditions are
expected over the next few days across southern Texas, but with highs
topping out near 100 degrees. Lower humidity, but even high maximum
temperatures are forecast into the southern High Plains and Southwest,
where high temperatures are forecast to surge pass the century mark.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across parts of southern Arizona,
with Heat Advisories spanning from southern New Mexico to southern Texas.
Additionally, summer heat will continue across the interior Northwest on
Sunday as highs reach into the upper 90s before slight relief arrives on
Monday with more seasonable temperatures.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php