Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 24 2023 - 12Z Wed Jul 26 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect for portions
of the Great Basin, Southwest, Intermountain West, Great Plains and
southern Florida...

...Canadian wildfire smoke continues to reduce air quality across the
Upper Midwest...


A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast, Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coasts today. Some elevated rain rates are possible over the
Florida peninsula, but shouldn't be enough to overcome the high tolerance
for rainfall/runoff locally. Shortwave energy riding along the southern
periphery of an upper low anchored over Hudson Bay will generate
additional scattered to isolated thunderstorm activity over the interior
Northeast this afternoon and early evening. This upper-level energy will
also direct Canadian wildfire smoke into parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin
today, where Air Quality alerts are in effect. Monsoonal moisture combined
with diurnal heating will support potential storms across the Four Corners
and Northern Rockies this afternoon, evening and again Tuesday evening. A
closed upper low will direct Pacific moisture into western Washington
today. Frontal forcing and upsloping may lead to higher rain totals over
the Olympics and northern Cascades.

A shortwave trough and surface low pressure will combine to produce
thunderstorms across the Northern/Central Plains today. Isolated to widely
scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from northern Nebraska into
the Dakotas, where a Slight Risk is in effect late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary
hazards with this activity.

A staunch upper level ridge will continue generating anomalous heat across
parts of the West as well as southern Florida. High temperatures in the
90s-110s and lows ranging from the upper 60s to 80s will likely tie or
break records in many parts of the West. Lows as high as the 90s are
possible for parts of the Southwest, where Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are also in effect
across other parts of the West, including the Great Basin, Intermountain
West and Great Plains. Critical Fire Risks are in effect for parts of the
Northern and Central Great Basin respectively due to dry and windy
conditions. Southern Florida will experience highs in the 90s and lows in
the 80s which may break records over the next couple of days. Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are also in effect for this area during
this time. The anomalous heat will spread into the Mississippi Valley by
midweek.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php