Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 25 2023 - 00Z Thu Jul 27 2023

...No let up to the heat with above average temperatures expected across
much of the Lower 48 over the next few days...

...Additional record highs possible from the Southwest into the Southern
Plains and across South Florida...

...Severe weather threat from the Northern Plains into the Mid West and
across the Mid-Atlantic...

...Canadian wildfires to continue to produce poor air quality from the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...

...Elevated to critical fire weather threat across the Northern Great
Basin and Northern Rockies...

The persistent mid to upper level high parked over the Southwest will move
little over the next few days.  This will continue the string of days in
which record high temperatures are set across portions of the Southwest
into the Southern Plains and across South Florida. There has been a
reduction over the past few days in the number of records set from the
Southwest into the Southern Plains and South Florida compared to the peak
set last week.  However, with the upper ridge remaining in place, much
above average temperatures and dangerous heat indices will continue across
the Southwest, through portions of the Plains and over South Florida.
Across these areas excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are
currently in effect.    Over the next several days, nearly all of the
Lower 48 will have above average temperatures as the Southwest to Southern
Plains upper ridge builds to the east and northeast.  The one exception to
this will be across the Northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest where
a cold front moving off the northeast Pacific will produce below average
temperatures.

Along the northern peripheries of the building upper ridge from the
Southwest into the mid section of the country a frontal zone will drape
from the Northern Plains into the Mid West and Mid Atlantic region.  This
frontal boundary will be the focus for areas of active thunderstorms,
producing areas of severe weather, heavy rains and isolated flash flooding
across the Northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and across the
Mid-West on Wednesday.

Northwesterly to westerly mid to upper level flow across central to
southern Canada into the northern tier of the U.S. will continue to
transport the persistent western Canadian wild fire smoke southeast.  This
will produce poor air quality from the Northern Plains, southeastward into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region over the next few days.

While temperatures are expected to be below average across the
Northwestern U.S. over the next few days in the wake of the inland moving
cold front, dry conditions, lower relative humidities and gusty winds will
support an elevated to critical fire weather threat across the Northern
Great Basin and Northern Rockies.

Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php