Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 25 2023 - 12Z Thu Jul 27 2023

...Excessive Rainfall leading to flash flooding possible over
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast today...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across Northern/Central Plains and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast today then shifting into the Midwest on
Wednesday...

...Above average temperatures spread across Northern/Central Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley over the next couple of days...

...Air Quality Alerts remain in effect across the Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes due to Canadian wildfire smoke; Critical Fire Risk across
Northern/Central Great Basin on Wednesday...

Shortwave energy moving through the Northern/Central Plains will trigger
thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. Storms will likely
initiate in the vicinity of a pair of low pressure systems and attendant
fronts. A Slight Risk of Severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and wind is in effect for this area. Elsewhere, an upper level trough
swinging through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the area today. Some storms may turn
severe with plenty instability and steep lapse rates, particularly over
the Mid-Atlantic Coast, where a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in
effect. The threat of Flash flooding looms over the DC to New York City
I-95 corridor this afternoon, where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect. Troughing in the East will continue to direct Canadian wildfire
smoke into the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.

Wednesday will be a higher confidence severe weather day from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Lower Great Lakes. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind gusts and the possibility
for a couple of tornadoes. Thus, an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
is in effect for portions of southern Michigan northern Indiana and
northern Ohio. This Enhanced Risk area will be within a Slight Risk area
over much of Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and western Ohio. Elsewhere, a
Critical Fire Weather area is in effect for extreme northeastern
California into northwest Nevada and far southern Oregon due to 15+ mph
sustained surface winds and 15-20 percent relative humidity.

An upper ridge will expand across the Great Plains and the Mississippi
Valley over the next few days. This will send high temperatures soaring
into the 90s and 100s and lows into the 60s to low 80s. This will
represent a 10-20 degree departures from normal. The heat in the
Southwest, Southern/Central Plains and southern Florida is also expected
to persist over the coming days with many places likely to rival high and
low temperature records. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across the
Desert Southwest and Heat Advisories are in effect over portions of the
Great Plains and southern Florida.


Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php