Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 26 2023 - 12Z Fri Jul 28 2023

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms will impact portions of the
Midwest today then the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of
days...

...Heat wave overtakes Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest; record breaking
heat continues in the Southwest...

...Critical Fire Weather area for extreme northeast California, far
southeast Oregon and far northwest Nevada today...


Shortwave energy and a surface low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather to the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over
the next couple of days. Ongoing convection over Minnesota and Wisconsin
will propagate east into parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio
today. Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall are possible,
especially over parts of Michigan and northern Indiana/Ohio where an
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding are in effect. A stripe of 1-2" of
rainfall is forecast across southern Michigan where a linear MCS could
also produce wind damage and isolated large hail. Elsewhere, a Slight Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect over portions of central Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas where multicell line segments could produce damaging
wind gusts and supercells could create isolated large hail.

The severe weather and excessive rainfall threats shift into the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as the upper trough swings east toward Nova
Scotia. Heavy rainfall may develop across much of Vermont, New Hampshire
and western Massachusetts where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect due to the potential for 1-2" of
rain over relatively moist soils. There's also the threat of widely
scattered severe thunderstorms across southern New England southward into
portions of the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind gusts and the risk for a
tornado are possible.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php