Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jul 26 2023 - 12Z Fri Jul 28 2023

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms will impact portions of the
Midwest today then the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of
days...

...Heat wave overtakes Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest; record breaking
heat continues in the Southwest...

...Critical Fire Weather area for extreme northeast California, far
southeast Oregon and far northwest Nevada today...


Shortwave energy and a surface low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather to the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over
the next couple of days. Ongoing convection over Minnesota and Wisconsin
will propagate east into parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio
later today. Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall are possible,
especially over parts of Michigan and northern Indiana/Ohio where an
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding are in effect. A stripe of 1-2" of
rainfall is forecast across southern Michigan where a linear MCS could
produce wind damage and isolated large hail. Elsewhere, a Slight Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms is in effect over portions of central Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas where multicell line segments could produce damaging
wind gusts and supercells could create isolated large hail. Abnormally dry
and windy conditions will support a critical fire weather risk over parts
of northeastern California, southeastern Oregon and northwest Nevada today.

The severe weather and excessive rainfall threats shift into the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as the upper trough swings east toward Nova
Scotia. Heavy rainfall may develop across much of Vermont, New Hampshire
and western Massachusetts where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect due to the potential for 1-2" of
rain over relatively moist soils. There's also the threat of widely
scattered severe thunderstorms across southern New England southward into
portions of the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging wind gusts and the risk for a
tornado are possible.

Meanwhile, embedded shortwaves within the Southwest ridge will facilitate
scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity across parts of the Four
Corners region. The aforementioned ridge will perpetuate an ongoing record
breaking heat wave across the Desert Southwest where daytime highs will be
in the 90s to 110s and lows will be in the 80s and 90s today. Temperatures
begin to trend cooler on Thursday. An anomalously warm airmass will spread
across the Midwest today and Thursday before expanding into the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Highs will be in the 90s and 100s across
the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest over the next couple of days while
lows in the 70s and 80s in Missouri and Illinois offer little overnight
relief. Be sure to continue practicing heat safety during this time.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php