Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 27 2023 - 00Z Sat Jul 29 2023

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms will impact portions of the
Midwest today then the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Thursday...

...Heat will spread east through Friday while a record-breaking heat wave
continues in the Southwest...

...Critical Fire Weather area for extreme northeast California, far
southeast Oregon and far northwest Nevada today...

An upper level shortwave is the driving force behind unsettled weather in
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today and the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
Thursday. A surface low will accompany the upper shortwave, tracking
across the Great Lakes and New England through Thursday night with showers
and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. The Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted an area with an Enhanced Risk of
Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over parts of lower
Michigan, northern Indiana, and northern Ohio. Severe storms may produce
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally,
locally heavy rainfall could cause scattered instances of flash flooding.
The severe weather threat will shift into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
on Thursday where the SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms. Damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding will be the main threats.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail will also be
possible today in the Central High Plains where the SPC has highlighted an
area with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms. Dry conditions are
expected to persist along the West Coast over the next few days.
Abnormally dry and breezy conditions will result in dangerous fire weather
conditions, especially over northeastern California, southeast Oregon, and
northwest Nevada in the Critical Fire Weather Risk area highlighted by the
SPC. 

Later this week, the low pressure system over the Northeast will weaken
while another frontal system sinks south from Canada. This system will
trigger showers and thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Thursday afternoon into Friday, and showers and storm coverage will expand
into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic late Friday into Saturday. Widely
scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible with convective activity
in the Midwest.

Daily diurnal showers and storms are forecast to persist across the Four
Corners region and along the sea breeze in the South and Southeast, and a
record-setting heat wave will continue in the Southwest through the end of
this week. Broad upper level ridging will expand from the Southwest to the
Northeast over the next few days, and above average temperatures are
forecast for much of the nation. High temperatures in the upper 90s and
100s are forecast from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest today and
Thursday, and heat will spread into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Friday
with highs in the 90s to near 100. Nighttime lows will also be above
average across most of the nation, by as much as 10-15 degrees in some
locations. It is imperative to practice heat safety as temps rise this
week.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php