Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 30 2023 - 12Z Tue Aug 01 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Southern Plains
eastward to the Southeast...

A front extending from the Southeast northwestward to the Northern High
Plains will be quasi-stationary through Tuesday. Along the western end of
the boundary, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop on Sunday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is
an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over the region.

Furthermore, moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers
and thunderstorms from parts of the Southwest into the Central Rockies on
Sunday. The showers and thunderstorms will also produce moderate to heavy
rain over the area. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas
of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

Moreover, on Sunday, tropical moisture and a nearby front will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast.

On Monday, upper-level energy will produce an area of showers and moderate
to strong thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. In
addition, moisture and upper-level energy will produce showers and
thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southwest,
Great Basin, and the Central Rockies. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In the meantime, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along
and near the front from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast.

Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will expand eastward from the Central
Rockies to the Lower Mississippi Valley, creating conditions that will
bring hot high temperatures and hot low temperatures that will contribute
to areas not cooling off overnight, which have contributed to Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the Southern Plains
eastward to the Southeast. In addition, a heat wave will also build early
next week across the south-central and southeastern U.S.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php