Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Aug 02 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
High Plains...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...

A front extending from the Southeast northwestward to the Northern High
Plains will be quasi-stationary through Tuesday then the western half of
the front dissipates. Along the west end of the boundary, showers and
moderate to strong thunderstorms will develop on Monday over the
Northern/Central High Plains. In addition, a second area of showers and
moderate to strong thunderstorms will develop over the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley. The associated rainfall will be moderate over the
region. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Moreover, a third area of showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies.
Likewise, the associated rainfall will be moderate over the region. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers
and thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast on Monday. Also, a weak
front will cross the Northeast from Canada, producing showers and embedded
thunderstorms later on Monday.

On Tuesday, upper-level energy and moisture flowing into Colorado will
produce an area of showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms over parts
of the Central High Plains. In addition, moisture and upper-level energy
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of
extreme southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
High Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Some moderate rain will
extend southwestward into the Great Basin/Southwest with the area of
showers and thunderstorms.

Also, on Tuesday, upper-level energy and moisture will produce areas of
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains and the Upper
/Middle Mississippi Valley. The associated rainfall will be moderate over
the region. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Central/Southern Plains will
create hot high temperatures. In addition, a few locations will have
record-high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off
overnight, which will also contribute to the effects of heat, prompting
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf
Coast. In addition, a heat wave will also build early during the week
across the south-central and southeastern U.S.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php