Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 01 2023 - 00Z Thu Aug 03 2023

...Dangerous heat wave to continue across parts of the south-central U.S.
and the Gulf Coast...

...Heavy Rainfall/flash flood threat for parts of the north-central
Rockies and the Mid-Mississippi Valley...

A dangerous heat wave will continue this week across parts of the central
and southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast as a
stubborn upper level ridge remains anchored in place. Daytime highs well
into the 90s and lower 100s, with even higher heat indices approaching or
exceeding 110F, are possible. These temperatures, along with oppressive
overnight lows near 80, will result in numerous records for both daytime
highs and record warm overnight lows. Widespread heat advisories and
excessive heat warnings are in effect. See key messages issued by WPC for
additional information and graphics associated with this heat wave.
Northern portions of this region may begin to moderate back towards normal
by Wednesday as the ridge becomes suppressed to the south.

Monsoonal moisture and various shortwave riding up and over the ridge will
allow for showers and thunderstorms from the Southwest U.S. into the
north-central Rockies and northern Plains. Locally heavy rainfall may
contribute to flash flooding in some locations, with WPC highlighting
slight risk areas on the excessive rainfall outlook through Wednesday
across portions of Colorado and Wyoming. To the East, multiple complexes
of thunderstorms will ride down the east side of the ridge into parts of
the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest. Potential for training storms will
increase the flash flood threat across this region, with WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlooks highlighting parts of Iowa, much of Missouri, and into
southern Illinois/far western Kentucky within a slight risk each day.

Elsewhere, a cold front through the northern Plains on Tuesday will focus
showers and thunderstorms across this region. Locally heavy rainfall along
with severe weather is possible. SPC has a slight risk on their Tuesday
outlook for severe weather potential. A boundary lingering across the
Southeast will also allow for daily showers and storms across Florida as
well, with locally heavy rainfall possible. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
should be dry with temperatures near or even below normal for this time of
the year underneath of expansive surface high pressure.

Santorelli


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php