Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 01 2023 - 12Z Thu Aug 03 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
High Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday; there is a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Wednesday...

... There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...

A front extending from the Southeast across the Central Gulf Coast to the
Central Plains will be quasi-stationary through Thursday. Along the west
end of the boundary, showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms will
develop over the Northern/Central High Plains to the Middle Mississippi
Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of
extreme southeastern Wyoming, the northwest corner of Nebraska, and
northeastern Colorado. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central High Plains through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of south-central Iowa and Missouri. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a weak front over South-Central Canada will move southward into
the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley. The boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of far northeastern Montana,
North Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Also,
upper-level energy, a nearby front, and moisture will produce areas of
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Thursday.

Furthermore, tropical moisture and a stationary front will create showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Missouri and Illinois.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley from Wednesday into Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on Wednesday as
upper-level energy moves over the Upper Great Lakes, creating showers and
moderate to strong thunderstorms. Moderate to heavy rain will be
associated with the thunderstorms, creating localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In addition, upper-level energy and a steady stream of moisture will aid
in producing areas of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of Idaho, Utah, and northwestern Wyoming. A secondary area of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of south-central
Wyoming and Colorado. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over two areas, parts of the Northern Rockies/Great
Basin and the Central Rockies, from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Central/Southern Plains will
create hot high temperatures. In addition, a few locations will have
record-high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off
overnight, which will also contribute to the effects of heat, prompting
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf
Coast. In addition, a heat wave will also build early during the week
across the south-central and southeastern U.S.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php