Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed Aug 02 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 03 2023 - 00Z Sat Aug 05 2023

...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible Thursday over the Tennessee
Valley, Southern Appalachians, and High Plains...

...Severe thunderstorms possible over parts of the central High Plains on
Thursday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf
Coast...

The heat goes on. Skies will be sunny over much of Texas, Oklahoma, and
the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next couple of days as the area
remains under the control of a strong upper ridge which has spent more
than its fair share of time in residence. Record and near-record highs are
likely for many areas on Thursday and will expand westward on Friday into
New Mexico where temperatures over 100F will be widespread. When combined
with the humidity, heat index values over 110F will pose a health risk.
The well above normal temperatures will extend northward to the central
Plains with temperatures into 90s to low 100s while parts of the Upper
Midwest will also see above normal temperatures into the upper 80s and low
90s. Some areas of the country will see cooler than normal conditions --
pars of the norther Rockies due to higher rain chances and also in parts
of the East as Canadian high pressure moves through.

Overnight low temperatures will also be well above normal, especially in
urban areas, near or above records for the date. With temperatures only
into the upper 70s to around 80F, there exists little time to adequately
cool down at night. Be sure to follow heat safety precautions. Visit
www.heat.gov for more information on heat and health.

A frontal boundary over parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley will
remain a focus for thunderstorms and locally heavy rain this evening into
early Thursday. The threat of excessive rainfall will be exacerbated by
earlier heavy rainfall last night, as additional rainfall could fall over
wet soils. The area of heavier rainfall will move southeastward into the
southern Appalachians tomorrow which will also keep temperatures a bit
cooler than normal.

Over the Rockies and into the central/High Plains, moisture flowing around
the steadfast heat dome over Texas will yield additional rainfall along
with a chance of severe thunderstorms (particularly eastern CO into
western KS) on Thursday. Strong winds and severe gusts are possible in and
around any organized areas of convection along with hail. By Friday,
rainfall is again forecast for parts of the northern Rockies into the
northern High Plains to the south of a developing cold font near the
Canadian border.


Fracasso


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php