Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 04 2023 - 00Z Sun Aug 06 2023

...Severe weather and flash flooding possible this evening in the Northern
Rockies, Central Plains, Mid-South, and northern New England...

...Friday and Saturday to remain stormy in portions of the Nation's
Heartland and through the Southeast...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories to stick around in the
Central/Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Desert Southwest...

A stormy end to the work-week and start to the weekend is on tap from the
Northern Rockies and Middle Mississippi River Valley to the East Coast.
This afternoon and into tonight, frontal boundaries tracking across the
Northern Tier of the U.S. will be responsible for numerous showers and
storms across the Northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. These storms
will have abundant moisture aloft to work with and some storms will be
slow moving. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a pair of Slight
Risks for Excessive Rainfall; one stretching from northern Utah and
eastern Idaho into the Black Hills of South Dakota and another in the
central Great Plains. Flood watches are also in place for parts of these
regions as well. The Central Plains features the best odds of severe
weather as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued an Enhanced Risk
(threat level 3/5) for northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest
Nebraska. There is also a frontal boundary draped over the Mid-South that
is set to produce more rounds of heavy showers and storms. A Slight Risk
for Excessive Rainfall is in place from southeast Missouri to the
Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Elsewhere, an approaching cold
front from Ontario has prompted the issuance of a Slight Risk (threat
level 2/5) for severe weather in parts of northern New York. WPC has a
Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) in parts of northern New England, as well
as in South Florida where torrential downpours within thunderstorms could
cause flash flooding in urbanized communities.

Friday and Saturday both look particularly busy thanks to a pair of storm
systems that will be acting to reinforce a stalled frontal boundary in the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest. WPC has just issued a Moderate
Risk (threat level 3/4) for Excessive Rainfall on Friday that includes
parts of southeast Montana, southwest North Dakota, northwest South
Dakota, and far northeast Wyoming. Severe weather is also in the forecast
for parts of the interior Northeast, so the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
from northern PA to southern Vermont. By Saturday, the Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall shifts east to include areas from the Black Hills on
east to southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. SPC has a Slight Risk for
severe storms in the Nation's Heartland. Scattered showers and storms are
also be possible in the Northern Rockies thanks to lingering monsoonal
moisture and in Florida where diurnally-driven storms will be common each
afternoon.

Temperature-wise, drastically different air-masses will entrench
themselves across parts of the North (cooler) and South (hotter).
Excessive and even dangerous heat is likely to continue in the South
Central U.S. through Saturday with heat indices topping out as high as 115
degrees in some cases. Daily record high temps will be common each day
from the Southwest to the central Gulf Coast with daytime highs routinely
surpassing the century mark. Expect morning low temperatures that struggle
to drop below 80 from Texas to the central Gulf Coast, which will also
break record warm minimums and provide little relief from the heat
overnight. The heat dome expands more into the Desert Southwest this
weekend. Farther north, temperatures will feel more like September in the
northern Rockies and Plains tomorrow and into the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures look to be cool enough that some daytime highs will struggle
to top 70 degrees in parts of the Northern Rockies.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php