Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 AM EDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Aug 06 2023

...Persistent heat will continue to affect the Desert Southwest, Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley into the weekend...

...Elevated potential for flash flooding across the Northern High Plains
today, expanding eastward through the Dakotas into Minnesota for
Saturday...

...Stormy conditions expected for portions of the central to southeastern
U.S. through Saturday...

A long-lived ridge aloft will maintain its position from portions of the
Desert Southwest to the central Gulf Coast through the weekend. This
feature aloft will suppress thunderstorm coverage beneath it and ensure
high heat index values across a good portion of the South. Another day of
possible record breaking maximum temperatures will exist today from
portions of New Mexico into Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in place over portions of the Desert Southwest
as well as northern Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma into the Lower
Mississippi Valley today where heat index values are likely to exceed 110
degrees during peak afternoon heating. Similar conditions are expected on
Saturday for these same locations but a relatively strong cold front is
expected to bring some relief from the heat to Kansas, Missouri and
portions of Oklahoma for Sunday.

An upper level disturbance will track from Montana and Wyoming toward the
east today. Above average moisture will contribute to an extended period
of rain with embedded high rainfall rates, leading to an average of 2 to 4
inches of rain for the northern High Plains, with isolated higher totals
through Saturday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms from southeastern
Montana into southwestern North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota are
expected where a Moderate Risk of flash flooding is in place through
Saturday morning. The threat for excessive rainfall will shift east for
the weekend as the upper level disturbance tracks into the north-central
U.S. Multiple rounds of heavy rain are also expected for portions of the
central to southeastern U.S. through Saturday as well, in the vicinity of
a lingering frontal boundary and with elevated moisture levels in place
from the nation's Heartland into the central and eastern Gulf Coast region.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php