Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 05 2023 - 00Z Mon Aug 07 2023

...Dangerous heat will continue for the Desert Southwest, Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Elevated potential for flash flooding from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest this weekend...

...Severe thunderstorms possible from parts of the central U.S. into the
Midwest...

A long-lived ridge aloft will maintain its position from portions of the
Desert Southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Heat and humidity will create
oppressive and dangerous conditions, and the persistent nature of this
heat wave will only continue to exacerbate heat stress and impacts.
Excessive heat warnings are in place over eastern portions of the
central/southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley where heat
indices could exceed 110 degrees during peak afternoon heating. Excessive
heat is also expected to continue across parts of the Desert Southwest
into southern New Mexico where excessive heat warnings and heat advisories
are also in effect. For southern portions of this entire region, the heat
wave will continue through the weekend, and likely beyond, per latest
forecasts from WPC and CPC. A relatively strong cold front is expected to
bring some relief, however, to parts of Kansas, Missouri, and portions of
Oklahoma by the end of the weekend.

An upper level disturbance tracking from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest this weekend will allow for an extended period of rainfall
across these regions where 2-4 inches of rain, with locally higher
amounts, are possible in some locations. This could lead to flooding and
flash flooding, with WPC highlighting a slight to moderate risk of
Excessive Rainfall through tonight and into Saturday from parts of
Wyoming/Montana and across the Dakotas. The risk shifts east into parts of
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday where WPC has a slight risk in
the ERO. Ahead of the associated surface cold front, severe thunderstorms
are possible across the central U.S./middle Mississippi Valley on
Saturday, into the Midwest on Sunday.

Elsewhere, showers and storms will continue along the northern periphery
of the upper ridge from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Southeast
in Saturday along a lingering frontal boundary. Flash flooding and
excessive rainfall are possible as much of this region has already seen
much above normal rainfall recently. Elevated fire weather threats are
also in place across western portions of Texas and the Four Corners region
this weekend.

Santorelli


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php