Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Sat Aug 05 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 06 2023 - 00Z Tue Aug 08 2023

...Dangerous heat will continue from the Desert Southwest to the southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend..

...Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threat will shift eastward from
parts of the Great Plains into the Midwest and the East...

Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across a large portion of Texas and
Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley as well as southeastern
California into southern Arizona for today. This is due to the influence
of a large and elongated upper level ridge extending from Arizona/New
Mexico to the central Gulf Coast. High temperatures across the Southern
Plains will again be in the low to mid-100s today, with peak heat index
values of 110 to 115 given high humidity in place. Similar heat is
expected across portions of the Desert Southwest, although lower dewpoints
across California and Arizona will support more of a dry heat across the
region with actual air temperatures climbing to 105 and locally over 110
for a few locations. Northern portions of this current heat dome may
finally get a brief break in the heat after today though as a strong cold
front moves into the south-central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley.
Heat from the Desert Southwest into Texas and the Gulf Coast states though
may last well into next week, and possibly beyond per the latest forecasts
from WPC and CPC.

A strong upper level disturbance moving through the northern Plains this
afternoon, with an associated cold front at the surface, will continue to
support the threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding this
evening and tonight. Southern areas from Colorado into Kansas and Oklahoma
are most favored for severe thunderstorms, while to the north, anomalous
moisture near a slow moving surface low will increase the threat for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding across parts of the Dakotas into western
portions of Iowa and Minnesota. By tomorrow the severe thunderstorm and
heavy rain threats should shift into the Midwest, and then eventually
parts of the East by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible along the cold front as it moves into the Tennessee Valley and
parts of the Southeast as well.

Additional upper level energy into the Northwest on Sunday will bring
increased chances for shower and storms Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall
and flash flooding may be a concern especially across northeast Washington
and northern Idaho where WPC has a slight risk on the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for Monday. Elsewhere, hot and dry conditions across the Four
Corners region and western Texas will also support a risk for fire weather
this weekend too.

Santorelli


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php