Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 08 2023 - 00Z Thu Aug 10 2023

...Very active east coast weather late afternoon into early evening Monday
with severe weather, heavy rains and flash flooding possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...

...Heavy rains and a flash flood threat for eastern New York State into
New England Monday evening into Tuesday...

...Heavy rains and a flash flooding threat also from Monday night into
Wednesday across portions of the Central to Southern Plains, Middle to
Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys...

...Record heat to continue from the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast
and into Florida...

...Elevated fire weather risks to continue for portions of the Great
Basin, Southwest and Southern Plains...

...Cooler than average temperatures expected from the Northern Rockies,
through portions of the Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Northeast...

Several areas of the nation will experience very active weather over the
next few days, with numerous thunderstorms, severe weather and flash
flooding threats.  A strong front pushing east this afternoon from the
eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi is helping to
fuel a large region of thunderstorms Monday afternoon from the Lower
Mississippi Valley, through the Appalachians and into the Upper Ohio
Valley.  These thunderstorms will be pushing across the the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast late this afternoon/early evening, producing heavy rains,
the potential for severe weather and flash flooding.  The severe weather
threat is anomalously large across the Southeast, Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening.  Damaging wind gusts, large hail and
tornadoes are all possible across these areas Monday afternoon/evening
with the greatest threat will likely be from damaging winds. 

Quieter weather expected across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by
early Tuesday.  The emphasis for heavy rains associated with the eastern
U.S. strong front will be shifting farther to the northeast across eastern
New York State into New England.  At the moment, it appears the severe
weather threat will be less for this region compared to what is expected
to occur over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.  However, heavier rains are
likely across these areas, with an increasing risk of flash flooding.

The western portion of the front that pushes through the eastern U.S. will
become stationary from the lee of the Central Rockies, southeastward
through the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley.  This
front will act as a focus for more than one round of organized
thunderstorms to push southeastward from Monday night into Wednesday. 
This will produce a threat of heavy rains and flash flooding across
portions of the Central to Southern Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi
Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys.

While heavy rains and severe thunderstorms affect portions of the central
to eastern U.S., the unrelenting heat wave of the summer of 2023 will
continue across the southern tier of the nation from the Southwest, into
the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast and into Florida.  Much of this
region has seen record high temperatures and record high morning low
temperatures over the past weekend.  This record potential is likely to
continue through the upcoming week.  Excessive heat warnings and heat
advisories are currently in effect across large portions of the southern
tier of the nation and will likely continue through much of this week as
there is no end in sight to the current large scale pattern that is
driving this heat wave.

In addition to the heat, a fire weather threat will continue over the next
few days across portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Southern
Plains.  A combination of dry conditions, low relative humidities and
gusty winds will continue to produce the fire weather threat.

In contrast to the much above average temperatures across large portions
of the southern tier of the nation, cooler than average temperatures are
expected over the next few days from the Northern Rockies, across portions
of the Central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Northeast.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php