Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 08 2023 - 12Z Thu Aug 10 2023

...Flash flooding expected for portions of northern New England today...

...Flash flood and severe thunderstorm threats to focus over the Central
High Plains today and Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys on Wednesday...

...Record heat to continue from Texas to the central Gulf Coast and into
Florida...

...Elevated fire weather risks to continue for southern portions of the
Great Basin and Texas today, lingering for Texas into Wednesday...

A slow moving and relatively strong low pressure system over northern New
York/southern Canada will gradually move eastward today, bringing another
round of strong to locally severe thunderstorms and flash flooding to
portions of New England. The highest potential for slow moving storms and
flash flooding will be over northern Vermont/New Hampshire into Maine
where one to three inches of rain is expected through Tuesday night,
locally higher. Heavy rain could result in flooding of rivers, creeks and
areas that are usually prone to flooding. While some light rain may linger
over Maine early Wednesday morning, the remainder of the day on Wednesday
should be feature pleasant weather as the low pressure system moves into
the Canadian Maritimes.

Another area for active weather today will be across the central High
Plains as a potent upper level disturbance crosses the central Rockies
later this evening. Thunderstorms are forecast to move off of the higher
terrain of Wyoming/Colorado into the Plains late this afternoon while
intensifying as they meet with increased moisture and instability near and
just north of a quasi-stationary front. The greatest threats from these
thunderstorms will be large hail and damaging straight line winds,
although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Additional thunderstorms,
some of which could be severe, are expected near the stationary front
which will extend southeastward from the High Plains into the Gulf Coast
states.

To the south of the fairly active thunderstorm pattern across the central
U.S. will be the continued long-lived heat across the southern tier of the
nation, extending from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains and
along the Gulf Coast into Florida. Much of this region has seen record
high maximum temperatures and record high morning low temperatures over
the past several days, and the potential for additional records will
continue through much of week. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
are currently in effect across large portions of the southern tier of the
nation with expected heat index values of 105 to 115, locally higher
possible through at least mid-week.

In addition to the heat, a fire weather threat will continue over the next
few days across southern portions of the Great Basin as well as
central/southwestern Texas today. A Critical Risk is highlighted for these
two regions today by the Storm Prediction Center and Critical fire weather
will continue on Wednesday for central/north-central Texas on Wednesday. A
combination of dry conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds
will continue to produce the fire weather threat.

In contrast to the much above average temperatures across large portions
of the southern tier of the nation, cooler than average temperatures are
expected over the couple of days from the Northern Rockies into the
Central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Northeast.

Otto

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php