Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 09 2023 - 00Z Fri Aug 11 2023

...Flash flooding expected for portions of northern New England today...

...Flash flood and severe thunderstorm threats to focus over the Central
High Plains today and Mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Wednesday...

...Record heat to continue from Texas to the central Gulf Coast and into
Florida...

...Elevated fire weather risks to continue for southern portions of the
Great Basin and Texas today, lingering for Texas into Wednesday...

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will move through the Northeast
along and ahead of trailing cold front as the relatively strong low
pressure system progresses over northern New York/southern Canada. A
steady plume of moisture will continue to draw northward increasing
precipitation efficiency. The environment will be very conducive for slow
moving storms capable of heavy rain across the New England region. The
highest potential for flash flooding will be from northeast Vermont,
northern New Hampshire into central Maine where amounts of 1 to 3 inches
are expected through tonight. Heavy rain could result in flooding of
rivers, creeks and areas that are usually prone to flooding. While some
light rain may linger over Maine early Wednesday morning, the remainder of
the day on Wednesday should be feature pleasant weather as the low
pressure system moves into the Canadian Maritimes.  Cooler than average
temperatures are expected from the Northern Rockies into the Central
Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Northeast over the next
couple of days.

An upper level disturbance crossing through the Intermountain West and
Central Rockies will cause thunderstorms over the higher terrain of
Colorado and Wyoming to move out into the High Plains by late afternoon.
Storm severity is expected to intensify over the Central/South  Plains as
they meet with increased moisture and instability near and just north of a
quasi-stationary front. The environment will be most favorable for
damaging wind, large hail and areas of heavy rain; although there
potential for
a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms, some of which could be severe,
are expected near the stationary front which will extend southeastward
from the High Plains into the Gulf Coast states.

The long-lived heat across the Southwest, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast and
into Florida will persist. Numerous daily temperature records have been
set this past week and a few more are within grasp in the upcoming days.
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are currently in effect across
large portions of the southern tier of the nation with expected heat index
values of 105 to 115, locally higher possible through at least mid-week.
Critical Fire weather continues with this hot and dry stretch. SPC has
identified two areas today with a Critical Risk- the Great Basin and
central/northern portions of Texas that will continue into Wednesday. A
combination of dry conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds
will continue to produce the fire weather threat.

Campbell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php