Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 09 2023 - 12Z Fri Aug 11 2023


...Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S....

...Severe storms expected today from eastern Kansas and Oklahoma to the
lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys...

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today across from
parts of South Texas to far southern Oklahoma...

Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in place from portions
of southeastern New Mexico to Florida and southern Georgia, where
above-normal to record-breaking heat will continue through the period. 
The combination of heat and humidity will result in dangerous heat
indices, possibly climbing above 110F in some locations.  Oppressive
daytime heat, limited overnight cooling, and widespread record warm
overnight lows will pose a significant health risk, especially for those
without effective cooling and adequate hydration.

In addition to the heat, dry and breezy conditions will contribute to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions from portions of South Texas
to far southern Oklahoma today.

Farther to the north, moist and unstable air moving out ahead of an area
of low pressure tracking through the Plains and along its trailing cold
front is expected to support thunderstorm development today from eastern
Kansas and Oklahoma eastward into the lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys. 
Some of these storms may become strong to severe -- producing hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes.  Heavy rain is a threat as well, with
isolated to scattered flash flooding possible.  By Thursday, the greater
threat for heavy rain is expected to shift into the southern Appalachians,
with severe storms more likely to develop over the Carolinas, east of the
mountains.

Across the northern tier of the U.S., showers and thunderstorms are
expected to focus near a front dropping into the upper Midwest and
northern Plains today, and then ahead of an area of low pressure moving
out of the Rockies tonight and then across the northern Plains Thursday
into early Friday.  Isolated severe storms and flash flooding may develop
across these areas.

In the West, temperatures are forecast to remain seasonal to below average
through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
across portions of the Southwest today, before expanding into parts of the
Great Basin and the southern to central Rockies on Thursday.      

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php