Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 10 2023 - 00Z Sat Aug 12 2023


...Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S...

...Severe thunderstorms expected through this evening from the Ozarks to
the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley...

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today across from
parts of South Texas to far southern Oklahoma...

Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in place across much of
the South, extending from Texas east across the Gulf Coast states and
including the Florida Peninsula, where above-normal to record-breaking
heat will continue through the remainder of the week. The combination of
heat and humidity will result in dangerous heat indices, possibly climbing
above 110F in some locations. Oppressive daytime heat, limited overnight
cooling, and widespread record warm overnight lows will pose a significant
health risk, especially for those without effective cooling and adequate
hydration.

In addition to the heat, dry and breezy conditions will contribute to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions from portions of South Texas
to far southern Oklahoma today through this evening, with conditions
gradually improving on Thursday.

Farther to the north, moist and unstable air moving out ahead of an area
of low pressure tracking through the southern Plains and along its
trailing cold front will continue to support broken to numerous areas of
showers and thunderstorms going through this evening with the focus of
this crossing the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio
Valley, Mid-South and Tennessee Valley going through tonight and early on
Thursday. Some of these storms may become strong to severe -- producing
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Heavy rain is a threat as well, with
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding possible. By Thursday,
the threat for heavy rain is expected to shift into the southern
Appalachians, with some severe thunderstorms expected over the Carolinas,
east of the mountains.

An additional focus on Thursday for heavy rainfall and potentially some
instances of flash flooding will be across the Ohio Valley and northern
Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure tracks across this area and gradually
advances toward southern New England by Thursday night. Some locally very
heavy rains could impact the greater New York City metropolitan area and
adjacent areas of southern and eastern New England Thursday night and
early Friday before this low center pulls away into the Canadian maritimes.

Across the northern tier of the U.S., showers and thunderstorms are
expected to focus near a front dropping into the upper Midwest and
northern Plains through this evening, and then ahead of an area of low
pressure moving out of the Rockies tonight and then across the northern
Plains Thursday into early Friday. Isolated severe storms and flash
flooding may develop across some of these areas.

In the West, temperatures are forecast to remain seasonal to below average
through the period. Monsoonal moisture will favor scattered showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest this evening, before
expanding into parts of the Great Basin and the southern to central
Rockies for Thursday and Friday.

Orrison/Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php