Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 10 2023 - 12Z Sat Aug 12 2023

...Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S...

...Severe thunderstorms possible today across the Carolinas while heavy
rain could impact southern New England tonight...

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected for the upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes from late Thursday through early Saturday...

The remarkably persistent weather pattern manifested by a broad upper
trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to trigger rounds of active
weather across the region through tonight, as the next round of active
weather moves across the northern tier states by Friday and into the
weekend.  The first round of active weather will be focused across the
interior Southeast this morning near and to the north of a stationary
front.  But as the front is forecast to dissipate later today, a broad
area of active weather is expected to expand across much of the eastern
U.S. through tonight.  This is in response to a developing low pressure
system whose center is forecast to track across the southern New England
coast tonight.  Within this broad area of active weather, severe
thunderstorms are possible today across the Carolinas while heavy rain
could impact southern New England tonight.  The low pressure system will
likely intensify more rapidly during the day on Friday as it moves quickly
away into the Canadian Maritimes.  Much of the East Coast will see much
improved weather on Friday but scattered thunderstorms will likely linger
across the Southeast as the trailing front becomes nearly stationary there.

Meanwhile, the next system of concern will move across the northern Plains
over the next couple of days.  This system is forecast to spread rounds of 
strong to severe thunderstorms for the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes 
from late Thursday through early Saturday.

Across the South, heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in
place from Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and including the
Florida Peninsula, where above-normal to record-breaking heat will
continue through the remainder of the week. The combination of heat and
humidity will result in dangerous heat indices, possibly climbing above
110F in some locations. Oppressive daytime heat, limited overnight
cooling, and widespread record warm overnight lows will pose a significant
health risk, especially for those without effective cooling and adequate
hydration.

In addition to the heat, dry and breezy conditions will contribute to
elevated fire weather danger over portions of Texas.  Some monsoonal moisture
is forecast to spread across the Four Corners region through the next
couple of days where scattered thunderstorms can be expected.  Meanwhile,
mainly dry weather is expected to continue over the northwestern quadrant
of the country.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php