Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 11 2023 - 00Z Sun Aug 13 2023

...Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S...

...Severe thunderstorms possible today across the Carolinas while heavy
rain could impact southern New England tonight...

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected for the upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes through early Saturday...

Unsettled weather will be impacting many areas of the East going through
this evening and the overnight hours as low pressure lifts northeast
across the Northeast and a trailing cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic
region and settles also down across the Mid-South and Southeast. Scattered
to broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected for these
areas, and there will be locally a threat for some severe weather
including southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina where the Storm
Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe storms concerning a
threat for damaging winds, some large hail, and perhaps a tornado going
through this evening. Heavy rainfall may result in some isolated to
locally scattered instances of flash flooding, and the Weather Prediction
Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of
southern New England. A separate concern for some flash flooding is also
expected tonight for areas of the Mid-South as the aforementioned front
begins to stall out and becomes a focus for new rounds of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity. As low pressure pulls away from the Northeast on
Friday, cooler and drier air will filter down to the south, but a front
will remain stalled out across the Mid-South and Southeast and this will
maintain a threat of showers and thunderstorms across these areas.

Meanwhile, a new storm system and associated cold front will be advancing
across the northern Plains and the Midwest through Friday, with low
pressure associated with this advancing into the Great Lakes region by
Saturday. This will bring new rounds of showers and thunderstorms
including a threat for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center does
have a Slight Risk of severe storms depicted across the region for this
evening including parts of eastern South Dakota and northeast Nebraska,
and then more broadly across the Midwest on Friday including the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Lower Missouri Valley, with all of these areas
seeing a concern for damaging winds, large hail and possibly a tornado.

Across the South, heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in
place from Texas east across the Gulf Coast states and including the
Florida Peninsula, where above-normal to record-breaking heat will
continue through the remainder of the week and into the weekend ahead. The
combination of heat and humidity will result in dangerous heat indices,
possibly climbing above 110F in some locations. Oppressive daytime heat,
limited overnight cooling, and widespread record warm overnight lows will
pose a significant health risk, especially for those without effective
cooling and adequate hydration.

Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture will be in place across the Four Corners
region over the next couple of days where scattered thunderstorms and an
isolated threat for some flash flooding can be expected. For areas a bit
farther east over the southern High Plains, including portions of central
to northwest Texas, hot temperatures coupled with dry and breezy
conditions will continue to promote an elevated fire weather danger.

Orrison/Kong

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php