Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 16 2023 - 00Z Fri Aug 18 2023

...Intense heat and record temperatures for portions of the Northwest and
Texas to continue this week...

...Severe thunderstorms possible for the Upper Midwest Wednesday...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and isolated flash flooding will continue
across the Four Corners region...

The well above normal and record temperatures are forecast to persist over
the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies for the next couple of
days, buoyed by a strong upper ridge (heat dome) that extends across the
Rockies. Daytime temperatures well into the 90s and low 100s will only
cool to the upper 60s to 70s, offering only brief relief at night. These
will likely approach or exceed daily records over the Northwest on
Wednesday and will expand into Texas on Thursday. There, temperatures of
100-110F will combine with the humidity to produce heat indices into the
110s. In addition, temperatures will rise into the 90s across the Upper
Midwest on Wednesday ahead of a cold front which will act as a focus for
thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. Temperatures will cool on
Thursday behind the front. On the flip side, many areas in the eastern
Lower 48 will see temperatures near to below normal on Wednesday behind a
cold front that is draped along the East Coast and the Southeast. By
Thursday, temperatures should moderate several degrees as most areas see
highs into the 80s.

Over parts of the Four Corners region, a southerly to southeasterly flow
aloft will bring in some moisture to the region, helping to fuel afternoon
showers and some thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated flash
flooding is possible, especially in more vulnerable areas. Temperatures
will be near normal over the region as this area will be just to the
southwest of the elongated heat dome, though southern Arizona may approach
daily records on Thursday. Along the Gulf Coast into Florida, south of a
slowly-moving (and eventually stalling) cold front, scattered shower and
storms are likely over the next couple of days with typically warm/hot
temperatures into the low 90s.


Fracasso


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php