Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 28 2023 - 12Z Wed Aug 30 2023

...Tropical Storm Idalia to impact much of Florida and the Southeast Coast
this week...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely across the Central/Southern
High Plains, Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic today...

...Pacific Northwest begins to cool down while Southwest experiences above
normal temperatures...


Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to intensify into a Hurricane and bring
heavy rainfall, strong winds, significant storm surge, and thunderstorms
to parts of Florida's west coast beginning Tuesday night. Portions of the
west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, Southeast Georgia and the
eastern Carolinas could receive 4-8 inches of rainfall between Tuesday and
Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches are possible, primarily near
landfall in northern Florida. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for this part of northern Florida
on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, and Hurricane Watches are
in effect across much of the Florida Gulf Coast. For more information on
Idalia go to hurricanes.gov.

A quasi-stationary front, currently draped across the lee of the Southern
Appalachians down through the central Gulf Coast and up into the
Southern/Central High Plains will be the focus for rounds of
afternoon/evening convection today. A broad Slight Risk area is in effect
from southern Virginia to northeastern Alabama, where convection enhanced
by upslope flow over the Southern Appalachians could pose flash flooding
concerns with rainfall rates between 1-2in/hr. Another round of storms are
likely to form across the Northeast coast and down through the
Central/Southern Appalachians on Tuesday as parts of the aformentioned
stationary front shifts northward.

A persistent ridge in the Southwest will contribute to above normal
temperatures. The upper low stationed off the Pacific Northwest coast will
weaken and come ashore on Tuesday. Temperatures across the Northwest will
drop in response to this. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s will be 10-20
degrees below average.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php