Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 29 2023 - 00Z Thu Aug 31 2023

...Tropical Storm IDALIA is forecast to become a hurricane while moving
northward across the Gulf of Mexico...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Southeast from Tuesday into Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast from Tuesday into Wednesday...

Tropical Storm IDALIA is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday evening
while moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, IDALIA is
forecast to make landfall along the Nature Coast of Florida on Wednesday
morning. Check the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for
IDALIA s most current track and strength.

On Tuesday, moisture associated with IDALIA will begin to create heavy
rain over parts of the Nature Coast of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with IDALIA over parts of the
Nature Coast of Florida from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding.
Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

On Wednesday, the heavy rain associated with IDALIA will expand into more
of the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of
excessive rainfall with IDALIA over parts of the Southeast Coast on
Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash
flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

Moreover, isolated tornados will be associated with IDALIA on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather
over the Eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast from Tuesday through
Wednesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are some
lightning, severe wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of
hail.

In addition, there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. An
inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected somewhere
between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.

Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential
for destructive winds where the core of IDALIA moves onshore. Strong winds
will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track
of the center of IDALIA. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which
may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast
of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into
Thursday. Hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of far
western Cuba later today.
Heavy rainfall is also expected across portions of western Cuba and may
produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides across
western Cuba.

Meanwhile, on Monday, a quasi-stationary extending from the Mid-Atlantic
to the Central Gulf Coast will focus tropical moisture along the boundary,
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the southern
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Appalachians, and Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic, Southern Appalachians, and Tennessee Valley through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

Generally, on Monday into Tuesday morning, an area of showers and strong
to severe thunderstorms will develop along the boundary from the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast to the Gulf Coast States and Southern Plains.
Furthermore, upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Rockies into the Southern High Plains on
Monday.

Elsewhere, wildfire smoke over parts of the Pacific Northwest has prompted
Air Quality Alerts over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Monday evening
into Tuesday morning. Moreover, a front develops over the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday, producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php