Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 29 2023 - 12Z Thu Aug 31 2023

...Tropical Storm Idalia to impact much of western Florida and the
Southeast Coast...

...Flash flooding possible across portions of the Central Appalachians...

...Northwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions experience a cool down...


Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to intensify into a hurricane today as
it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward the west coast of
Florida. Showers and thunderstorms should begin across Florida today. The
most significant impacts associated with Idalia will be experienced along
the Big Bend region of Florida's Gulf Coast tonight into Wednesday, where
the flash flooding, severe weather, wind and storm surge threats are the
greatest. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
is in effect for the aforementioned areas. Flash flooding threats spread
inland across the Southeast coast on Wednesday as Idalia moves across
northern Florida and along the Atlantic coast. A larger Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect for these areas where 4-8 inches of rain
is expected through Thursday. Up to 12 inches are possible, primarily near
landfall in northern Florida on Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center
issued Slight Risks for Severe Thunderstorms from northern Florida to the
Carolina coast where there's a potential for a few tornadoes. There is a
danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Hurricane,
Flash Flood and Storm Surge Warnings etc. are all in effect along
Florida's Gulf Coast. For more information on Idalia, please go to
hurricanes.gov.

Meanwhile, a stationary front draped across the Central/Southern
Appalachians will be the focus for heavy rainfall as moisture from the
Gulf streams northward and interacts with the boundary. Upslope
enhancement along the terrain will support flash flooding concerns,
especially over parts of the lee side of the Central/Southern Appalachians
out into the Carolina and Georgia Piedmont regions. Troughing over the
Northwest and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will usher in cooler air for those
regions. The Southwestern U.S. ridge will remain in place for the next
couple of days leading to above average temperatures and continued
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories from Southern California into
the Desert Southwest.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php