Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 31 2023 - 00Z Sat Sep 02 2023

...Hurricane Idalia to continue producing significant impacts from
northern Florida to the Carolinas through Thursday...

...Heat wave to originate across the High Plains the second half of the
week, then spread into the rest of the Heartland for Labor Day Weekend...

...Flash Flooding possible over parts of the Northern Rockies today;
resurgence of monsoonal moisture to produce more showers and storms
throughout the Southwest late week...

After making its historic landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend
near Keaton Beach earlier this morning, Hurricane Idalia is tracking
through southern Georgia this afternoon. It is producing a plethora of
hazards across the coastal Southeast that include tropical storm force
winds, Excessive Rainfall and inland flooding, severe storms, battering
waves, and coastal storm surge. The inland flood threat is greatest from
southeast GA on northeast into eastern SC and southern NC where WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) for Excessive Rainfall. The
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posted an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3/5)
along the Carolina coast with tornadoes and damaging winds the primary
threats this afternoon and into this evening. The combination of heavy
rainfall and high winds will likely result in significant to even
catastrophic impacts to infrastructure, including power outages, extensive
tree damage, and flooded roads. Coastal areas from northern FL to the NC
Outer Banks can expect anywhere from 1-4ft of storm surge trough tonight.
By Thursday morning, Idalia will be making its way off the Carolina coast,
pounding the coast of NC with more battering waves, storm surge, and
soaking the eastern Carolinas in moderate-to-heavy rainfall. WPC maintains
a Moderate Risk over eastern NC while the Marginal Risk extends as far
west as I-95 in central NC. Rainfall rates will gradually lessen
throughout the afternoon and evening as Idalia tracks farther into the
western Atlantic. Expect blustery winds, high surf, and some residual
storm surge to linger through Thursday evening.

In other news, the second half of the week will be headlined by the
beginning of yet another heat wave in the High Plains. Daytime highs
Thursday will reach the 90s in the northern and central Plains with some
portions of the southern Plains surpassing the century mark. By Friday,
temperatures only grow hotter throughout the High Plains and Upper
Midwest. A larger footprint of triple digit highs will stretch from South
Texas to the central Plains Friday afternoon. This expansion of stifling
heat sets the stage for what will be a sizzling Labor Day weekend
throughout the Nation's Heartland. In contrast, the East Coast will
experience seasonally cooler conditions through Friday, while a cold front
ushers in cooler than normal temperatures into the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday, followed by the the rest of the West Coast on Friday.

Idalia is not the only system responsible for producing Excessive Rainfall
through Friday. A stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast will aid
in the development of scattered showers and storms from the central Gulf
Coast to Florida through Friday. WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the
Florida Panhandle and western Florida on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for
portions of the Florida Panhandle on Friday. In the West, an upper low
deepening over the Pacific Northwest and the strengthening ridge of high
pressure over the Heartland will work in tandem to pump additional
monsoonal moisture throughout the Intermountain West. Portions of the
Northern Rockies remain under a Slight Risk today, but the is also a
Slight Risk in southern UT, southern NV, and central AZ on Friday. Spotty
showers and storms will also be possible in parts of northern CA and
central OR both Thursday and Friday.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php