Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 31 2023 - 12Z Sat Sep 02 2023

...Tropical Storm Idalia will continue to impact the Carolina Coast
today...

...Heat wave to expand in coverage across the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper Midwest through Labor Day weekend...

...Flash Flooding concerns for the Southwest and Florida's northern Gulf
Coast through Saturday...


Tropical Storm Idalia will continue to weaken as it moves off into the
Western Atlantic today. Areas of flash, urban and moderate river flooding,
with considerable impacts, are expected from eastern South Carolina
through eastern North Carolina today. Heavy rainfall is expected across
the North Carolina coast through this afternoon, when conditions will
begin to improve. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across coastal North Carolina are
expected during this period. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading
to Flash Flooding is in effect for much of the Outer Banks with an
embedded Moderate Risk in there for portions of the central OBX. Coastal
flooding is also expected within the Storm Surge Watch area in North
Carolina today. Tropical-storm-force winds will affect portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through Thursday.

An amplifying trough along the West Coast will usher in a cooler air mass
over much of the West this weekend. Conversely, this will support the
growth of a ridge across the Central U.S.. This will lead to a heat wave
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest this Labor Day
weekend. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s to low 100s
for many through Monday with little relief expected overnight. Widespread
high and warm low temperature records are likely to be tied or broken,
with some places approaching their all-time hottest September records.
This heat wave will pose a health risk to those without adequate
cooling/hydration. Take this heat seriously, especially if you plan to
spend time outside during the holiday weekend or participate in early
school year outdoor activities. Below average high temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s paird with high pressure overhead will make for a
beatiful introduction to the weekend for much of the East Coast. Heat is
expected to build over the Mid-Atlantic later this weekend, through Labor
Day and into next week, with clear and sunny skies likely.

Enhanced southerly flow between the amplifying West Coast trough and
expanding central U.S. ridge will support monsoonal moisture advection
into the Southwest beginning today, when scattered showers and
thunderstorms will produce some isolated pockets of heavy rainfall. The
fire hose opens up on Friday with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
leading to Flash Flooding in effect for an axis extending from southern
Arizona up into southeastern Nevada and southern Utah. Up to an 1.5" of
rain is possible over parts of southeastern Nevada into southwestern Utah
where a number of vulnerable slot canyons are located. Elsewhere, a
stationary closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to
generate moist southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico into the Florida
Panhandle on Friday. This will interact with a stationary surface front
and produce heavy to excessive rainfall over the region through Saturday.
A Slight Risk of Flash Flooding is in effect for the Panhandle on Friday.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php