Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 01 2023 - 00Z Sun Sep 03 2023

...Tropical Storm Idalia to continue tracking well off the Southeast coast
tonight...

...Heat wave to expand in coverage across the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper Midwest through Labor Day weekend...

...Flash Flooding concerns for the Southwest and Florida's northern Gulf
Coast through Saturday...

Tropical Storm Idalia continues to track east this afternoon farther and
farther off the Southeast coast. Idalia's western flank is still
generating tropical storm force wind gusts, high surf, and periods of rain
this afternoon along the coastal Mid-Atlantic, but winds should gradually
lessen and showers push off the coast later tonight. By Thursday, the only
lingering affects from Idalia will be rough surf and occasionally gusty
winds.

As the calendar flips over to September, signaling the begin of
meteorological autumn, the top story will be how temperatures feel like
anything but autumn in the Nation's Heartland. This is due to a
strengthening ridge of high pressure aloft that allows for increasingly
hot conditions Friday and into the holiday weekend. Today's footprint of
90s-low 100s high temps in the southern and central Plains will expand
into the northern High Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday. The heat dome
on Saturday will expand eastward to the western Great Lakes, allowing for
an even larger areal extent for 90s-low 100s high temps throughout the
Heartland. Record breaking daytime highs are possible each day in the
Great Plains, as well as in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Saturday. This regime of sizzling high temperatures will spill over into
the rest of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday and eventually
working their way into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for Labor Day.

In contrast, the West Coast will be mired in a cooler than normal
temperature regime thanks to a slow moving and deepening upper level low
overhead. A strong cold front will be responsible for ushering in daytime
highs that range between 10-20 degrees below normal for much of California
and into the Desert Southwest both Friday and Saturday. This upper low
will also work in concert with the upper level ridge over the Heartland to
deliver monsoon moisture to the Southwest and Intermountain West. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a pair of Slight Risks (threat level
2/4) in parts of the Southwest, specifically in parts of Arizona, southern
Utah, and southern Nevada. Flash flooding is possible in these areas,
especially in dry washes and spots featuring sensitive soils.

Farther east, a stationary front will be the catalyst for daily rounds of
heavy showers and thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast and into
Florida. There is a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the Big Bend of
Florida on Friday, where they remain quite sensitive to heavy rainfall in
wake of Idalia. On the flip side, dry conditions will be common from the
Great Plains and Ohio Valley to the Northeast through Saturday and
potentially into the remainder of Labor Day weekend. Friday appears to be
another pleasant day in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with daytime highs
near average and comfortable humidity levels. Look for temps to rebound to
more summer-like levels for the second half of the upcoming weekend.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php