Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Fri Sep 01 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 01 2023 - 12Z Sun Sep 03 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin on Friday/Saturday and Eastern Gulf Coast on
Friday...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin on Friday...

...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central
Plains on Friday...

Moisture streaming northward over Northwestern Mexico and upper-level
energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, southeastern Nevada, and extreme
Southeastern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, narrow crayons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

Moreover, there is a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms over the
Southwest/Great Basin. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes. In addition, an upper-level trough over the Pacific
Northwest will aid in producing showers with embedded thunderstorms over
the area through Saturday evening.

On Saturday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over parts of the
Southwest as moisture streams inland over Northwestern Mexico, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of
the Southwest/Great Basin from Saturday into Sunday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow crayons/gullies,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and tropical moisture streaming northward
over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain on Friday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast through Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

Also, on Friday, gusty wind and low relative humidity over parts of the
Plains prompted the SPC to issue an Elevated Risk of fire weather over
parts of the Central Plains.

The threat of excessive rainfall decreases the Eastern Gulf Coast on
Saturday. However, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of
the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and the Southeast.

Wildfire smoke over parts of California and the Pacific Northwest has
prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of the region on Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php