Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Fri Sep 01 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 02 2023 - 00Z Mon Sep 04 2023

...Heavy rains and a flash flooding threat from the Southwest into the
Great Basin, northern California and along the central to eastern Gulf
Coast...

...Much above average temperatures expected through all of the Plains
Saturday and Sunday, spreading east into the Northeast by Sunday...

..Smoke from Canadian wildfires to push along the northern tier from the
Upper Mississippi Valley to New England...


A strong mid to upper level low is expected to remain nearly stationary
over the next few days along the northern California coast while an upper
ridge builds from the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The
southerly flow on the east side of the California low and the southerly
flow on the west side of the Plains upper ridge will push much above
average moisture values north from the Southwest into the Great Basin,
northern California and the Northern Rockies.  Active showers and
thunderstorms expected in this high moisture axis, supporting heavy rain
potential and isolated flash flooding for the upcoming holiday weekend. 
Across portions of these regions, flood watches are currently in effect.

Heavy rains and isolated flash flooding also possible across portions of
the central to eastern Gulf Coast.  While Idalia has moved well off the
east coast, an axis of above average moisture values trailing from this
storm will linger across these regions over the next two days.  Heavy
rains are possible in this above average moisture axis, with isolated
flash flooding possible, especially across eastern portions of the the
Florida Panhandle and Northwest Florida that received heavy rains recently
from Idalia.

Increasingly hot weather on tap for large portions of the nation this
weekend as an upper high strengthens across the Central Plains and Mid
Mississippi Valley region on Saturday and expands eastward Sunday into the
Ohio Valley.  The core of the above average temperatures on Saturday will
stretch across all of the Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
where high temperatures from the upper 90s to lower 100s are forecast. 
This much above average temperatures will continue into Sunday across the
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley and also spread eastward into the
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  A few record highs are
possible on Saturday across the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley,
with a more expansive record high potential on Sunday across these areas. 
The potential for record high temperatures will also spread into portions
of the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic for the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

Predominantly westerly mid to upper level flow expected across southern
Canada and the northern tier of the U.S. over the next few days.  This
will be transporting smoke from the persistent Canadian wildfires
eastward, affecting regions of the northern tier of the lower 48 from the
Upper Mississippi Valley, across the Upper Great Lakes, northern New York
State and much of New England.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php